In an important and timely opinion piece for The Irish Times, Tom Arnold, Chair of Glencree, and Cary Fowler, former US Special Envoy for Global Food Security, highlight the growing threat of a global food crisis driven by conflict, climate change and disruptions to food supplies.
They call for urgent international action, stronger political leadership, scientific innovation and greater investment in Africa’s future.
At Glencree, we recognise that peace, food security and sustainable development are deeply interconnected. Building lasting peace means addressing the conditions that fuel conflict, hunger and inequality.
Read the article published in today’s Irish Times.
Nutrition quality is now key to food security but conflict and climate make the task harder
The world is facing a food crisis in late-2026 and well into 2027. Three key factors are responsible for the crisis.
Nearly 300 million people suffer from severe food insecurity as a result of protracted conflicts,
with Sudan the most notable example, and climate change.
The Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts are disrupting flows of grain, fertilizer and energy
which will impact on the production of crops of wheat, maize and rice in 2027.
The coming El Niño is likely to be the most severe in recorded history. The 2023-24 El Nino led
to the worst Southern African drought in more than a century, with over 60 million people
requiring humanitarian assistance.
Despite these steadily increasing risks there has been an alarming lack of political action and resultant preparedness.
In June 2026 the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP)
launched a Joint El Niño Anticipatory Reaction Appeal for the June 2026-March 2027 period,
seeking $202 million, targeting 22 high risk countries and reaching nearly nine million people.
By end-September 2026 only $40 million had been pledged – 20% of their request.
There is a leadership deficit in securing action. The UN is currently in a weakened position
given existing geopolitics and with a new UN Secretary General due to take up office in January
2027.
There are in 2026 some similarities, but many dissimilarities, to the situation in the late-1960s
when the spectre of mass starvation threatened a number of Asian countries, most notably
India. This was averted through a combination of massive food aid shipments from the USA
and the scientific breakthroughs of increased crop yields for wheat, maize and rice associated
with the green revolution.
The green revolution, allied to other improvements in health and living standards, contributed
to a remarkable half century of progress in human welfare. Between 1970 and 2025 world
population increased 122 per cent from 3.7 billion to 8.2 billion. The proportion of this larger
population who were chronically undernourished fell from nearly 25% in 1970 to less than 8% in
2025 – when the number was still a staggering 645 million. Under-five mortality reduced by
three quarters reaching 37 per 1000 live births in 2025. Life expectancy increased from 59 years
in 1970 to 74 years in 2025. Billions of people have been lifted out of extreme poverty.
Looking forward to 2050, we can expect a continuation of certain of these trends, including the
improvement in child mortality rates and the increase in life expectancy.
There will be important changes in population dynamics. The world population is projected to
grow from the current 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion in 2050. Europe and certain countries in Asia
(China, Japan, South Korea) will experience reductions in their populations, necessitating
economic and social adjustments.
Africa is the only world region expected to show a significant population increase, doubling its
current population to reach 2.5 billion by 2050.Global demand for food is expected to grow by roughly 50% between now and 2050.
In 1970, the green revolution faced the hugely challenging but relatively straightforward task of
increasing the number of calories to feed hungry people. : Today’s challenge is more complex
and includes addressing ‘hidden hunger’ – micronutrient deficiencies, as well as overweight and
obesity – to achieve nutrition security.
The other huge challenge is the effect of increased climate variability and extreme weather
events on food production and vice versa, the need to reduce carbon emissions from food
production systems and their impact on climate change.
In drawing lessons from the past 75 years and in looking to the future, we focus on three areas
we believe should be prioritised: political leadership; the potential of science; and the need to
invest in Africa to realise its development potential.
We believe that the incoming UN Secretary General should make global food and nutrition
security a personal strategic priority on taking office in January 2027. This should translate into
making food and nutrition security a core pillar of the UN‘s agenda for peace, development,
climate and human security.
In addition to being the right thing to do, this would be good politics. In a world increasingly
dominated by the two superpowers of the US and China, the UN has a strategic interest in
promoting a new multilateralism reflective of an emerging multipolar world. Enhanced global
food and nutrition security is a big idea around which new coalitions of regions and countries
could emerge seeing it in their best interests to contribute to the initiative.
Over the next two years the UK and South Korea will hold the Presidency of the G20. Both
should prioritise food and nutrition security.
Given the policy of the current US administration, including the abolition of USAID, the US is
unlikely to contribute to such an initiative. But in light of the US’s long-term track record in
promoting global food and nutrition security, its continuing strength in leading-edge agrifood
research, and importantly, its enduring values and longer term national interests, a future US
government, possibly even the successor to the Trump administration, may revert to playing a
positive role in global food politics.
Getting new technologies into the hands of millions of smallholder farmers across the
developing world will be crucial to delivering improved food and nutrition security at local,
national and global level.
The range of technologies now available is more advanced than the science which underpinned
the Green Revolution. Advances in genomics, advanced breeding and gene editing are critical
for climate adaptation. AI, machine learning and advanced data analytics can provide farmers
with relevant locally-specific advice.
The CG system of international agricultural research institutes – which played a vital role in
delivering the Green Revolution – warns against dependence on any single technology and
advocates bundling digital decision tools with climate adapted seeds, water efficient
technologies, crop diversification, finance and market access. Its work will underpin future food
and nutrition security.
Africa is a continent with high vulnerability but also with huge opportunity. The vulnerability
involves governance challenges, conflict in a number of countries and regions, the impact of
climate change and under-developed infrastructure.
On the positive side, the doubling of Africa’s population to 2.5 billion by 2050 represents both a
huge challenge and an opportunity. The challenge is how to generate jobs for the 20 million
young people annually entering the work force. The opportunity is how to reap the demographic
dividend of this increase while leapfrogging part of the development process through
widespread adoption of energy and digital technology.
Investment in its people and developing its human capital is Africa’s single most important
priority.
Malnutrition-induced stunting is a key problem with 62 million children under-five in sub-Saharan
Africa stunted in 2024, 43% of the world’s total. It can cause lifelong physical and cognitive
problems. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 60 per of global under-5 deaths. The World Bank’s
2020 Human Capital Index reported that children born in Africa are expected to achieve only
40% of their potential productivity.
For Africa’s potential to be realised four main conditions must be met: stop the conflicts; get
politics and governance right; ramp up agricultural R&D to address food production constraints;
and invest in its human capital. It is primarily up to African political leadership and its people to
deliver on this but the wider international community should play a key role as partners.
We have both spent many years working and advocating for increased food and nutrition
security. Despite the many challenges we are optimistic that hunger can be substantially
eliminated by 2050. But this will require sustained political commitment; putting the gains of
science into the hands of millions of smallholder farmers; and partnering to achieve an
economic and social revolution in Africa.
Tom Arnold is the Chair of the Glencree Centre for Peace and Reconciliation and the former
Irish Government Special Envoy for Food Systems.
Cary Fowler is President of the US Food Security Leadership Council and the former US
Government Special Envoy for Global Food Security.
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